Free Football Picks 18.01.2017

Things are now starting to look up for Sassuolo, after claiming four points from their opening two fixtures of 2017. They’ve also been boosted by their returning stars, with highly rated forward Domenico Berardi making his first start since August last weekend. The Neroverdi should be able to move away from the relegation zone in the second half of the season, but could they also make this a season to remember by winning the Coppa Italia?

Sassuolo have been handed a favourable draw this week, as they face Serie B side Cesena for a place in the quarter-finals. The visitors are having a poor season themselves, as they come here in 18th place in the second tier, which puts them on course for a spot in the relegation play-offs. While they did shock Serie A side Empoli in the last round, it’s going to take a huge effort for the Bianconero to pull off a similar upset at the MAPEI this week.

A shock here would have been possible not too long ago, as Sassuolo ended 2016 with a run of five straight defeats. They also claimed just one win in 16 towards the end of last year. However, their 4-1 victory over Palermo on Sunday shows that they’re back on course, and those three points lifted them away from danger.

The hosts should be able to continue that form against Cesena, who are yet to record an away win in the league. They’ve lost 73% of their Serie B trips, scoring just 0.64 goals per game on average. To make matters worse, the Bianconero’s last game was a 3-0 defeat at Hellas Verona at the end of December. That’s a pretty big break between games, which isn’t likely to help them here.

It’s easy to see why Sassuolo are heavy favourites to see off their second tier opponents. We think it’s worth backing a heavy win for the Neroverdi, given that 60% of their home league victories have been by two goals or more. Cesena have scored just 30% of their goals away, conceding 75% of their total goals against on the road. That should see the Serie A side claim a comfortable victory, and we’re backing them with a -1.0 Asian Handicap, which is priced at 1.900 with bet365.

HEAD TO HEAD
Sassuolo have won four of their last five encounters against Cesena. Their last home victory over their next opponents was a 5-0 rout. Three of their last four meetings have all seen over 2.5 goals.

SASSUOLO VS CESENA STATS
Cesena have scored in six of their last eight away games. Sassuolo have scored three or more goals in two of their last three Serie A games. Cesena have claimed just 14% of their Serie B points away from home.

SASSUOLO TEAM NEWS
Sassuolo's injury crisis is improving, but they missed defender Marcello Gazzola at the weekend, along with Davide Biondini, Francesco Magnanelli and Simone Missiroli. They are all expected to sit out again here.

CESENA TEAM NEWS
Cesena have no injury worries ahead of this trip, although they may be a little rusty after almost three weeks without a game.


Sassuolo -1.0 Asian Handicap at 1.900  bet365
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Even though a late equaliser stopped Southampton from progressing to the next round of the FA Cup last time out, we are backing them to get the job done at the second time of asking. A Southampton win in 90 minutes is available at 8/15 with bet365. For our correct score tip we think the Saints will make it a fairly comfortable nights work and record a 2-0 home win, which is priced at 13/2 with the same site.

With the form of Southampton hardly making any headlines, the pressure will be on for Saints boss Claude Puel to kickstart their season with a win in the FA Cup. Southampton recorded a vital win in the semi-final of the League Cup over Liverpool last week in a result which showed that there is quality in this side when they put their mind to it, but with their captain handing in a transfer request and defeat to Burnley at the weekend, there is still plenty for Puel to do if he is to silence his doubters.

Visiting St Mary’s is a Norwich side who are hardly pulling up any trees themselves. They have been disappointing in the Championship this season and even though they recorded a morale boosting 3-0 home win against Derby not so long ago they then went back to form and fell to a 2-1 defeat to lowly Rotherham. Alex Neil looks to be under increasing pressure as Norwich manager and after he led the side to relegation from the Premier League last season, it will be interesting to see if he is allowed much more time to turn his sides fortunes around.

HEAD TO HEAD
Southampton have the better of the head to head between these two sides with a record of 48 wins, 38 draws and 40 defeats. The last time these sides met was in the 2-2 draw which led to this replay.

SOUTHAMPTON VS NORWICH STATS
Southampton have progressed from 13 of their last 16 FA Cup replays against teams from a lower division and they have scored in all but one of their last 21 FA Cup games. Norwich have won just one of their last 15 FA Cup games against Premier League opposition, drawing three and losing the other 11. The Canaries are without a win in their last three replays in the competition with their last one coming against Blackpool in 2007.

SOUTHAMPTON TEAM NEWS
Steven Davis will again miss out with a knock and with the future captain Jose Fonte still undecided he is unlikely to feature. Virgil van Dijk and Ryan Bertrand are both doubts but Sofiane Boufal, Charlie Austin, Matt Targett, Alex McCarthy and Jeremy Pied all remain sidelined.

NORWICH TEAM NEWS

Nelson Oliveira serves the first game of his suspension after he was sent off against Rotherham at the weekend and he will be joined on the sidelines by Jonny Howson, who misses out with a calf injury. Louis Thompson, Conor McGrandles and Carlton Morris are also unavailable.

Southampton Win
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