Free Football Picks 24.01.2017

Odds coming strongly down for home team. Who really wants to bet bigger money I suggest lower risk but "more secure" bet on straight home win which is now paid only 1.40 (bet365) while some serious bookmakers took off this game from offer. First leg of 1/8 finals of Greek Cup. OFI Crete surprisingly won group C of the Cup to get to this playoffs, won Panathinaikos (2-1) and Iraklis (2-1) but lost to poor Smyrnis (1-0) away from home. It is very hard to read OFI Crete specially when they play at home, strange team and in Greece its generally hard to predict Cup games in this country. Now things are more 'serious' and there is bigger stake in hands of teams. Xanthi is a very good team this season in Greek Super League; they are positioned 3rd under Olympiakos and Panionios, with a very good record, specially at home where they are 4-2-2 (9:6).

OFI Crete plays Football League (2nd division in Greece) and they are positioned 5th. Nothing special and they are 7 points under 2nd placed Lamia (place that takes them to Super League) and they just actually lost to Lamia (1-2) at home, after leading from 59' minute they managed to lose at the end. With poor momentum and form they are coming to this difficult away match to play a top Greek team who is very strong at home.

Xanthi have won their 5 out of 6 home games losing only to giant Olympiakos. What is more interesting is tradition between these two teams who can many times play key role in betting. Xanthi have lost only 1 time since 1999 against their tomorrow's opponent and that was in 2003. Their score at home against OFI Crete is 12-3-1 (since '99) and most recently (in season 2014/15) they won them in Super League twice, at home 2-1 and away 0-1. And last year in the Cup competition they played 1-1 away and 3-0 at home. So their last match at home against OFI they have won easily 3-0...

So here we have Xanthi motivated to go through to the next rounds where they will meet with bigger Greek teams and make off some money while OFI Crete is coming completely demotivated to this match after their key season loss to the leaders of Football League. We cannot compare structure of these two teams which is on Xanthi's side like 2 levels. Of course I repeat Greek Cup games are hard to predict and there are many surprises but I will be VERY MUCH SURPRISED if Xanthi doesn't win this game with at least 2-3 goals difference based on the current momentum that are both teams in. Good luck!

GREECE: Greek Cup - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

16:15 Xanthi FC - OFI Crete

Pick: Xanthi FC (-1.5)

Odds: 2.03   BetVictor
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Oostende is fighting at this moment for the top places in the league in Belgium where they are currently sitting on 4th place in the league standings at this moment with a total of 39 points won so far this season and they are coming into this game here after a 1-0 win away from home at Beveren and they are a pretty strong team when playing games at home this season with a record of 7-3-1 at home in the league so far this season with the team also playing in the semi-finals of the Belgian Cup competition this season and with Charleroi being in poor form at this moment with 3 losses in a row in the league without a single goal scored in those games there my bet here is on the hosts to be winning this game here and odds are decent here.


BELGIUM: Jupiler League

20:30 Oostende - Charleroi

Pick: 1

Odds: 1.83   Unibet
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BRIGHTON VS CARDIFF

This match was originally due to take place over the Festive period but was postponed due to bad weather. Neither club would have been that upset by that given the volume of fixtures at that time and both teams come into this match in good form. Cardiff are a bit of a bogey team for the Seagulls but the way their season has been going, it’s very hard to back against Brighton at home, particularly against a bottom half side.

Brighton picked up a massive win on Friday night, when they beat fellow promotion hopefuls Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 on the South Coast. It was the perfect response to their first defeat in 19 Championship matches the weekend before that and they will return to top spot if they can bag maximum points from this game.

Looking at their home record, it’s very easy to make a strong case for them doing just that. They have the best home record in the division with an excellent 2.46 points per game collected on average at the Amex this term. They’ve netted 2.08 goals per home game on average so they clearly post a major attacking threat but have still managed to be very good at the other end too. Top scorer Glenn Murray is suspended here following his red card against Sheffield Wednesday on Friday although Brighton have lodged an appeal so he could yet appear.

Even if he doesn’t Brighton have other strong options up front and a real goal threat in midfield in the shape of Anthony Knockaert. He scored twice against the Owls and has 4 in 5 games now coming into this. He has also reached double figures for the season in the Championship and backing Knockaert to score anytime at 2/1 looks a good bet here.

Cardiff come into this game having won all 3 Championship games they’ve played this year so they will head to the South Coast believing in themselves. Those wins were all against sides in poor form right now though and this will clearly be a much tougher task. Away from home, they’ve looked very vulnerable at the back with 1.83 goals per game conceded on average and they’ve not kept an away clean sheet since the opening day of the season.

Both teams have scored in all of Cardiff’s last 6 away games though so you can’t rule out a Bluebirds goal. 9 of their last 11 away games have produced over 2.5 goals in total but with Brighton so dominant at home, you have to look upon a home win as by far the most likely outcome. They are quite short to win outright but given Cardiff’s tendency for high-scoring away games, backing Brighton to Win & Over 2.5 Goals .

HEAD TO HEAD
Cardiff are unbeaten in 5 games against Brighton. They also have a great record at the Amex, not losing on any of their last 6 visits, although 5 of those matches were drawn.
BRIGHTON VS CARDIFF STATS
There have been over 2.5 goals in 75% of Cardiff away games this season. Brighton have won 77% of their home games.

BRIGHTON TEAM NEWS
Striker Glenn Murray is suspended after his red card on Friday but Brighton have lodged an appeal in an attempt to clear him to play. Bruno may return at full-back after injury kept him out of that game while striker Sam Baldock will also have his calf problem assessed.

CARDIFF TEAM NEWS
Anthony Pilkington will have a knock assessed. Otherwise Cardiff have no selection issues. Rhys Healey, who came off the bench to net the only goal at the weekend, will be hoping for a start.

ENGLAND: Championship

20:45 Brighton - Cardiff

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals

Odd:2,15
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